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Futures on equity indices

Alternative methods of weighting

It is generally considered that capitalization weighted indices give the most accurat indication of the collective movement in corporate asset or liability prices. However two alternative methods of weighting the constituents of equity indices are fowl,equally weighted‘ and ‘price weighted‘. In the case of equally weighted indices, a’ equal amount of money is assumed to be invested in each security in the index Changes in the index thus represent changes in the value of the portfolio. Pri weighted indices reflect the average price of the securities in the index and Chang: in the index represent the average price change of the securities in the index. The Dow—Jones and the Major Market Index of the American Stock Exchange (MMI) a. both of the price weighted form. The FT 30 is a geometric average equally weight index. Only the Major Market Index has a futures contract based upon it. Read more »

Strategies to reduce option cost

A US investor has purchased Sterling Treasury bills and wishes to hedge against the falling value of Sterling. Buying the out-of-the-money put (strike price $1.8500) will protect against a fall below that figure. The sale of the out-of-the-money call at $1.8900 will mean that the investor will benefit from any rise in Sterling to $1.8900 but not above that figure. The cost of buying the put is off-set by the revenue from writing the call, resulting in this instance in a zero cost strategy.

The reader will note that if Sterling rises above $1.8900, the written call position will make a loss. This is off-set by the rising value in dollar terms of the underlying Sterling investment. Conversely, if Sterling falls below $1.8850, the puts make a profit which off-sets the currency losses on the investment in the Sterling Treasury bills. Read more »

Using currency options to manage risk

This section explains two of the many uses of options that rely upon the ability of the option buyer to abandon the option at no extra cost. The first is the purchase of options to insure against a fall in the value of a currency. The second is the hedging of the currency risk in a foreign currency tender.

Purchasing options as a form of insurance

If a US investment manager has strong expectations of a rise in the value of Sterling but wishes to insure against being totally wrong, slightly out-of-the money puts will provide the required insurance. Read more »

Empirical evidence of the term structure continue…

Term structure based option-pricing models

Term structure models of pricing contingent claims have followed one of two approaches. One approach followed by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) actually model the expected returns from movements in the term structure in order to price the contingent claims. In effect, the term structure becomes endogenous to the pricing of the contingent claim.

The second approach followed by Ho and Lee (1986), Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1989), Black, Derman and Toy (1990) and Hull and White (1990) utilizes the volatilities of the various sectors of the term structure to derive a probability distribution of an arbitrage-free binomial, trinomial or multinomial lattice of the term structure. From this lattice, contingent claims are priced. These models all have one thing in common: they allow for the whole-term structure to be stochastic instead of the price of a single underlying instrument or a single interest rate. The whole-term structure is represented at each node of the binomial, trinomial or even multinomiaf lattice. Read more »

Asset swaps — synthetic instruments for asset management

Asset swaps are different, in that they are linked to the purchase of an asset and the swapping of the cash flows of that asset. They are therefore used synthetically to engineer an asset structure rather than a liability structure.

The idea behind an asset swap is to enhance returns to the investor rather than hedging or lowering costs to a borrower. The objective is to find some underpriced fixed rate bond which is then purchased by an investor that would prefer a floating rate investment. The coupons are then swapped with a bank that has fixed rate liabilities at a lower cost. The bank thereby receives a fixed payment that is higher than the cost of its existing fixed rate debt. Read more »

Where Do You Look for the Next Paul Tudor Jones? Part 3

The professionals within this industry have their own trade association, the Managed Futures Association. Its function is to assist members, to promote the industry, and to advance the industry. They produce an excellent monthly professional journal that discusses issues important to members, everything from legislation, regulatory compliance, trade execution, to marketing. Their annual membership directory is an excellent source to find CTAs and CPOs.

Commodity pool operators are the individuals or corporations who structure funds. These are pools of commingled money from a number of individual investors. Most of the funds are large enough to require multiple CTAs. If the funds are properly selected, this further reduces risk, as we saw earlier. Most CPOs closely follow the performance of a large number of CTAs and analyze their performance. For this reason, CPOs can be excellent consultants in CTA selection. Read more »

Relating Familiar Marketing Techniques to Managed Derivatives Targets

European Institutions

The preparedness of European institutions to purchase either managed derivatives funds or programmes varies across the continent and is dependent upon a series of factors some of which may be addressed by marketing.

  1. The regulatory (and tax) environment;
  2. general familiarity with the derivatives and managed derivatives industry;
  3. familiarity with the fund management group attempting to sell product;
  4. presence and format of a track record (at least for past funds if a new product is offered);
  5. money under management within the fund group;
  6. technical expertise within the fund group;
  7. performance aspirations for the fund or investment programme;
  8. quality and content of the explanatory/sales materials;
  9. financial considerations such as fees implicit within the fund or programme.

Read more »

International Investing Concerns and Limitations Part 1

There are a variety of concerns with international investing and limitations of the analysis cited in previous sections. These limitations are discussed below and may weaken the case for international investing.

Increasing and Varying Correlations

Concern

The key benefit from international investing arises because of low correlations between the domestic market and foreign markets. There are two criticisms of historical correlations. First, the correlations may be increasing due to greater global integration as evidenced by larger capital and trade flows. Moreover, as more and more emerging markets liberalize capital flows, the correlations will increase. If the correlations are increasing, the above analysis based on prior data overestimates the benefit from international investing. Reconsider the example in the preamble of “Evidence,” above. With a correlation of 0.60, the new portfolio’s risk fell from 18 percent to 16 percent. However, if the correlation is 0.70 instead of 0′:60, then the new portfolio’s risk falls less, from 18 percent to 16.6 percent. If the correlation is 0.8, then the risk is 17.1 percent.

You can see that the gains from international investing can quickly erode with an increase in correlations. Read more »

RETAIL SALES

Advertising

Beyond the requirement for agents (discussed below), fund groups undertaking retail sales tend to support their marketing efforts with fund advertising. Advertising regulations are both complex and highly variable between different countries but that does not mean that effective campaigns cannot be developed.

One problem to be faced here is that the most effective marketing statement— the expected performance of a new fund—is the one most difficult to get past the regulations. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results, for example.)

Fund Structure

Retail orientated managed derivatives funds may often differ from their institutional counterparts. The best example of this is in the employment of guarantees of return of capital. So-called guaranteed funds appeared in the mid-1980s and have thus far escaped the best efforts of numbers of regulators (outside the USA) to force a name change to something less overtly promotional (assured capital funds and so on).

Futures TradingGuarantees have their supporters and detractors but they do sell to retail investors and investors who (in most, but not all, countries) like the assurance of a guarantee when trying a new type of investment vehicle and are less swayed by comments about performance dilution than are the institutions. Furthermore, from a marketing standpoint, the presence of a guarantee or more accurately a guarantor creates the opportunity to include the name of a bank (often a major bank) as an additional sales incentive.

Marketing Materials

There is no proof of the assertion that retail investors are more swayed by brightly coloured marketing materials than are institutions. What is clear, however, is that the content of such materials should spend time introducing the concepts of derivatives and of managed derivatives at a more basic level. One worry expressed by many fund groups is the inclusion of the notorious word commodities within documentation about a diversified fund and various awkward attempts have been made at euphemism.

In fact it is probable that commodities — pictured rather than discussed— have a positive rather than negative sales impact since they are much more readily comprehensible than certain classes of financial instruments. When a retail investor understands that the natural way to invest in oil or (tax-free) gold is through derivatives he or she is often on the way to becoming the purchaser of a certain type of fund.

Joint Ventures

Creating joint venture arrangements between a fund group and a financial group capable of distributing product is one of the most efficient ways to obtain investment capital, but at a price. The key requirement in arranging joint ventures is not marketing but having a clear understanding of the financial structure of the proposed fund and the income consequences of various splits of the managed or sales fees or brokerage commissions.

Marketing can help initiate discussions, however. Here, a high profile in the press is desirable, particularly if supported by occasional conference platform speeches (see below). It may also be helpful for a member of the fund management team to be an active member of a derivatives or managed derivatives trade association—to give more strings to the marketing bow.

The Origins of the Futures Industry (part 4)

THE GROUP OF THIRTY

The recent report by the Washington-based think-tank, the Group of Thirty, sought to address many of the problems associated with the risk ofover-the-counter derivative products. The Group of Thirty or G30 is a private group made up largely of the senior management of banks from all over the world and academics working in the field of economics.

The current members are:

  1. Rt. Hon. Lord Richardson of Duntisbourne KG, honorary chairman
  2. Paul Volcker, chairman, Group of Thirty, and chairman of James DWolfensohn Inc.
  3. Dr Pedro Aspe, Secretario de Hacienda y Credito Publico Mexico
  4. Geoffrey Bell, executive secretary, Group of Thirty, and president of GeoffreyBell & Company

Read more »

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