Alternative methods of weighting

It is generally considered that capitalization weighted indices give the most accurat indication of the collective movement in corporate asset or liability prices. However two alternative methods of weighting the constituents of equity indices are fowl^,‘equally weighted‘ and ‘price weighted‘. In the case of equally weighted indices, a’ equal amount of money is assumed to be invested in each security in the index Changes in the index thus represent changes in the value of the portfolio. Pri weighted indices reflect the average price of the securities in the index and Chang: in the index represent the average price change of the securities in the index. The Dow—Jones and the Major Market Index of the American Stock Exchange (MMI) a. both of the price weighted form. The FT 30 is a geometric average equally weight index. Only the Major Market Index has a futures contract based upon it. Read more »

Posted: June 28th, 2008 under Commodities Futures, Foreign Exchange Futures, Future Management, Futures Contracts, Futures Trading System, Managed Futures, Short Futures, Stock Futures, investment.
Comments: 5

The dramatic growth of equity index futures has been accompanied by the substantial growth of equity index options. These options come in three forms:

1. Options on the spot index itself such as the contract traded in the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange — like the futures, these options are settled in cash, rather than by delivery of the underlying securities. Sometimes both European and American options are traded on the same index.
2. Options on the index futures are American options that call for delivery of an equity index futures contract at expiry.

Read more »

Posted: June 26th, 2008 under Foreign Exchange Futures, Futures Contracts, Futures Index, Futures Market, Futures Options, Stock Market Futures, Swap Futures.
Comments: 5

A US investor has purchased Sterling Treasury bills and wishes to hedge against the falling value of Sterling. Buying the out-of-the-money put (strike price $1.8500) will protect against a fall below that figure. The sale of the out-of-the-money call at $1.8900 will mean that the investor will benefit from any rise in Sterling to $1.8900 but not above that figure. The cost of buying the put is off-set by the revenue from writing the call, resulting in this instance in a zero cost strategy.

The reader will note that if Sterling rises above $1.8900, the written call position will make a loss. This is off-set by the rising value in dollar terms of the underlying Sterling investment. Conversely, if Sterling falls below $1.8850, the puts make a profit which off-sets the currency losses on the investment in the Sterling Treasury bills. Read more »

Posted: June 22nd, 2008 under Commodities Futures, Currency Futures, Equity Futures, Future Fund, Futures Contracts, Futures Options, Futures Spreads, Futures Trader, Futures Trading System, Managed Futures, S&P Futures.
Comments: 4

As with all other forms of futures contract, the fair price of short-term interest rate futures should preclude any arbitrage possibilities between the futures market and the underlying cash market. In the case of bank deposit interest rate futures, there should be no arbitrage possibilities between the forward interest rate implied by the future and the forward interest rate available on the appropriate type of bank deposit. For example, a three-month eurodollar futures contract that has 135 days to maturity should not provide any arbitrage possibility with the 135-day forward rate on a three-month eurodollar deposit. Read more »

Posted: June 20th, 2008 under Future Trading, Futures Contracts, Futures Market, Futures Prices, Interest Rate Futures.
Comments: 5

It was shown that it is possible to lock in a forward rate of interest. However, depositors will only lock in a forward deposit if the rate that results is at least as favourable as the rate that they expect to prevail at the future point in time. If the forward rate implied by the current rates was above investors’ expectations, theinvestors would increase their borrowing for 90 days, causing upward pressure on that rate, and increase their deposits for 180 days, causing downward pressure on that rate, thereby bringing the 90-day forward rate down to current expected levels.

Conversely, if the implied forward rate were below expectations, investors would borrow for the longer term, raising that rate, and deposit for the shorter term, lowering that rate, until the implied forward rate matched expectations. Read more »

Posted: June 20th, 2008 under Future Exchange, Futures Contracts, Futures Market, Futures Prices, Interest Rate Futures.
Comments: 6

As the name implies, an FRA is an agreement to buy or sell a forward rate of interest on a notional principal amount. Remembering that interbank deposit rate futures also relate to forward rates of interest, the similarity between the two instruments will be obvious. Conceptually, the seller of the FRA undertakes to provide an agreed rate of interest on a notional deposit of a specified size at a previously agreed future date. Thus the FRA locks in the rate of interest on a forward deposit, the forward rate of interest.

An FRA relating to the interest rate on a six-month deposit starting in three months time is referred to in FRA market parlance as a 3 against 9 (or a 3 vs 9) FRA. This clearly indicates that, in this example, the appropriate interest rate is the six- month forward rate three months hence. Read more »

Posted: June 18th, 2008 under Futures Contracts, Futures Prices.
Comments: 1

The US Treasury bond and Treasury note, and the UK gilt futures contracts, provide for delivery on any business day within a delivery month, with the short side choosing the actual day of delivery.

If future interest rates were certain, the choice of delivery day would also be certain, and the following delivery rule would apply: if the bond yield is above the repo rate (i.e. the cost of carry is negative), delivery would be on the last day of the delivery month. If, on the other hand, the bond yield is below the repo rate (i.e. positive cost of carry), delivery will be on the earliest possible delivery date. Read more »

Posted: June 18th, 2008 under Futures Contracts.
Comments: 5

The fact that these delivery options are available only to the short seller of futures contracts means that collectively they provide that seller with a series of valuable put options over the underlying bonds or notes. It is therefore instructive to delve more deeply into the nature of these options and their influence on bond futures valuation.

The existence of these options depends upon the futures contract specifications. Examples of the options that can be identified are as follows.

1. The short seller’s option to choose the bonds that will be delivered under the futures contract; this is the so-called ‘quality option‘.
2. The short seller’s option to choose the day of delivery within the delivery month: one form of the so-called ‘timing options‘.

Read more »

Posted: June 18th, 2008 under Future Trading, Futures Contracts, Futures Market.
Comments: 4

The valuation of interest rate options is currently the most contested area of option- pricing theory. The problem stems from the fact that although there is a reasonable consensus about the nature of the stochastic process of share prices, equity indices and currencies, the movements in interest rates and interest rate dependent instruments are not fully understood and full agreement on the underlying process has yet to be reached.

The stochastic process of interest rates, and therefore the prices of interest rate dependent claims, has proved to be very difficult to model for a number of reasons. Read more »

Posted: June 17th, 2008 under Equity Futures, Future Broker, Futures Contracts, Futures Quotes, Managed Futures, Stock Market Futures, Swap Futures.
Comments: 3

A detailed analysis of the empirical testing of the term structure is beyond the scope of this post; however, in summary it should be stated that the empirical tests give a substantial role to expectations. However, forward rates are not unbiased estimators of future spot rates, and the bias is consistent with a liquidity premium. There is also some evidence that the premium increases with the term to maturity, but at a decreasing rate. There is less support for the segmentation hypothesis.

The dynamics of the term structure

Clearly the term structure is dynamic, but exactly what is the nature of this dynamic process? It has long been observed that long rates are less volatile than short rates; for further discussion see Kessel (1965), Malkiel (1966) and Brooks and Livingston (1990). Current long-rate volatilities are linked to current short-rate volatilities by the concept of mean reversion — i.e. where short rates have a tendency to be pulled back towards some long-term average value following a movement up or down. Read more »

Posted: June 15th, 2008 under Currency Futures, Future Exchange, Futures Contracts, Managed Futures, Swap Futures.
Comments: 2